NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Let’s get this out of the way: Nobody at the MLB winter meetings knows what Shohei Ohtani is thinking. 

Anybody who tells you otherwise is either (1) Ohtani himself, (2) Ohtani’s agent Nez Balelo, (3) a baseball executive speaking out of turn, (4) lying, or (5) a clairvoyant. But Ohtani’s commitment to privacy hasn’t stopped the waterfall of speculation, as multiple sources indicated to FOX Sports that Ohtani to the Los Angeles Dodgers remains the most likely outcome.

Why?

There isn’t any new reasoning beyond the obvious, beyond what you’ve already heard. The flow of information out of Ohtani-land is so limited, even for people within the industry floating around Tennessee’s massive Opryland resort, the host of this year’s meetings. But the overwhelming consensus from those around the baseball universe is Los Angeles should still be considered the front-runner.

The Dodgers have the need, the money, the big-market pull and appear to have crafted their offseason around reeling in the biggest fish. Their interest makes all the sense in the world. To be fair, every single ballclub has interest; the Dodgers also have the motive and the means.

But the inevitability of Shohei to Chavez Ravine assumes one enormous unknown: He wants to be there. 

The Dodgers became the front-runner because they can offer Ohtani everything he could want. An enormous bag of Benjamins? Check. A competitive roster that makes the playoffs every year? Certainly. An impressive organizational culture with a track record of getting the most out of players? Yup. A sense of continuity in the comfort of Southern California that Ohtani has grown used to over the last few seasons? Indeed. A large Japanese population in a city on the West Coast? Absolutely.

The Dodgers have everything that we think Ohtani desires, but think is the key word there. At this point, it’s still all speculation. In a recent ESPN+ documentary, the Japanese superstar explained that his decision to sign with the Angels back in 2017 was mostly because his instinct and intuition told him to. Ohtani got a good vibe from that organization. He trusted his gut.

What’s to say he doesn’t get that vibe this time around from any number of teams? What if his meeting with Farhan Zaidi in San Francisco went perfectly? What if the Braves pitching coach blew him away? Any number of things could tip the scales in any number of directions. It’s just that the Dodgers’ structural advantages give them a leg up, a head start.

But the Dodgers had all of those obvious benefits in 2017, too. And still, Ohtani zagged left and shocked the baseball world. He could very well do so again. Yes, the universal DH, which did not exist in 2017, gives the Dodgers a different dynamic this time, but Ohtani’s preferences and intentions are shrouded in mystery. That so many people in Nashville are predicting the Dodgers doesn’t really do anything beyond continuing to build expectations.

Jake Mintz, the louder half of @CespedesBBQ is a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He played college baseball, poorly at first, then very well, very briefly. Jake lives in New York City where he coaches Little League and rides his bike, sometimes at the same time. Follow him on Twitter at @Jake_Mintz.

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